AviationNews – Airbus has released its latest Global Services Forecast, predicting that the global commercial aviation services market will double in value over the next two decades, driven by widespread fleet modernisation, accelerated digital integration, and sustained passenger growth. The sector is on track to expand from $209 billion today to over $420 billion by 2045.
The European planemaker published the forecast alongside its long-term fleet projections, detailing a shifting aftermarket ecosystem shaped by an expanding worldwide aircraft fleet. Mature aviation regions such as North America and Europe currently represent roughly half of all aftermarket spending, but Airbus expects a decisive eastward migration. Led by substantial traffic surges across South Asia and China, the broader Asian region is projected to generate over 40 percent of total worldwide service demand by 2045, with China poised to become the single largest national market.
Operationally, the expansion spans maintenance, parts supply, system modifications, and technician training. Off-wing maintenance and heavy repairs form the largest volume sector—projected to reach $217 billion as aging fleets require intensive engine overhauls and component shop visits. Simultaneously, digital solutions and connected cabin operations represent the fastest-growing discipline, expanding at over 5 percent annually as operators lean on real-time health monitoring and predictive maintenance to reduce costly turnarounds and avoid flight delays.
“Aviation services are entering an unprecedented phase of transformation, where lifecycle value, operational efficiency, and digital capabilities will determine airline competitiveness,” noted an Airbus services spokesperson. “Meeting this demand requires not only advanced technical infrastructure, but also a massive investment in human capital to train the hundreds of thousands of pilots and technicians needed to keep global aviation flying safely.”
Looking ahead, airlines and maintenance organizations face the urgent task of scaling support networks to accommodate an active worldwide fleet that will nearly double. To prevent critical bottlenecks, carriers and third-party maintenance providers must fast-track technician apprenticeships, integrate data analytics, and expand serviceable parts inventories to maintain operational resilience across the coming two decades.
Airbus expects the global commercial aviation services market to expand beyond $420 billion by 2045. As airlines replace older airframes and expand routes across emerging economies, the sector’s long-term profitability will increasingly rely on sophisticated aftermarket support, seamless connectivity, and a well-trained technical workforce.
