Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that passenger demand in September remained highly depressed.

Total demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was 72.8% below September 2019 levels (only slightly improved over the 75.2% year-to-year decline recorded in August). Capacity was down 63% compared to a year ago and load factor fell 21.8 percentage points to 60.1%.

International passenger demand in September plunged 88.8% compared to September 2019, basically unchanged from the 88.5% decline recorded in August. Capacity plummeted 78.9%, and load factor withered 38.2 percentage points to 43.5%.

Domestic demand in September was down 43.3% compared to the previous year, improved from a 50.7% decline in August. Compared to 2019, capacity fell 33.3% and the load factor dropped 12.4 percentage points to 69.9%.

“We have hit a wall in the industry’s recovery. A resurgence in COVID-19 outbreaks–particularly in Europe and the US–combined with governments’ reliance on the blunt instrument of quarantine in the absence of globally aligned testing regimes, has halted momentum toward re-opening borders to travel. Although domestic markets are doing better, this is primarily owing to improvements in China and Russia. And domestic traffic represents just a bit more than a third of total traffic, so it is not enough to sustain a general recovery,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Sept 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR)	world share1	rpk	ask	PLF (%-PT)​2	PLF (LEVEL)​3
Total Market	100.0%	-72.8%	-63.0%	-21.8%	60.1%
Africa	2.1%	-85.6%	-72.4%	-34.7%	37.8%
Asia Pacific	34.6%	-63.5%	-57.7%	-11.0%	69.2%
Europe	26.8%	-75.8%	-64.3%	-27.9%	58.6%
Latin America	5.1%	-76.2%	-72.4%	-11.3%	70.6%
Middle East	9.1%	-88.9%	-77.2%	-38.5%	36.5%
North America	22.3%	-74.7%	-60.0%	-30.3%	52.5%

International Passenger Markets

European carriers’ September demand collapsed 82.5% versus a year ago, which was a setback compared to an 80.5% decline in August. Europe was the only region to see a deterioration in traffic compared to August, owing to renewed infections that led to a wave of border closings. Capacity contracted 70.7% and load factor fell by 35.1 percentage points to 51.8%.

Asia-Pacific airlines’ September traffic sank 95.8% compared to the year-ago period, virtually unchanged from a 96.2% drop in August. The region continued to suffer from the steepest fall in traffic as flight restrictions have remained stringent with little re-opening of borders. Capacity plummeted 89.6% and load factor shrank 46.8 percentage points to 31.7%, the lowest among regions.

Middle Eastern airlines posted a 90.2% traffic decline for September, improved from a 92.3% demand drop in August. Capacity tumbled 78.5%, and load factor sank 40.9 percentage points to 34.4%.

North American carriers saw a 91.3% traffic decline in September, a slight improvement from a 92.0% decline in August. Capacity toppled 78.3%, and load factor dropped 49.8 percentage points to 33.4%.

Latin American airlines faced a 92.2% demand drop in September, compared to the same month last year, versus a 93.4% decline in August versus August 2019. Capacity dived 87.9% and load factor dropped 29.3 percentage points to 53.3%, highest among the regions.

African airlines’ traffic sank 88.5% in September, barely budged from an 88.7% drop in August. Capacity contracted 74.7%, and load factor fell 39.4 percentage points to 32.6%, which was the second lowest among regions.

Sept 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR)	world share1	rpk	ask	PLF (%-PT)​2	PLF (LEVEL)​3
Domestic	36.2%	-43.3%	-33.3%	-12.4%	69.9%
Dom. Australia	0.8%	-88.7%	-82.8%	-28.3%	54.1%
Dom. Brazil	1.1%	-55.3.0%	-54.7%	-1.1%	80.7%
Dom. China P.R.	9.8%	-2.8%	2.3%	-4.2%	79.4%
Dom. Japan	1.1%	-59.3%	-45.6%	-19.5%	58.1%
Dom. Russian Fed.	1.5%	2.7%	6.8%	-3.3%	82.4%
Dom. US	14.0%	-65.0%	-49.3%	-25.6%	57.0%

Domestic Passenger Markets

Australia’s domestic traffic was down 88.7% compared to September 2019 virtually unchanged from August (-88.8%), amid continuing strict containment measures.

Brazil’s domestic traffic fell 55.3% in September, an 11.7 percentage point improvement compared to August.

The Bottom Line:

“Last week we provided analysis showing that the airline industry cannot slash costs fast enough to compensate for the collapse in passenger demand brought about by COVID-19 and government border closures and quarantines. Some 4.8 million aviation-sector jobs are imperiled, as are a total of 46 million people in the broader economy whose jobs are supported by aviation. To avoid this economic catastrophe, governments need to align on testing as a way to open borders and enable travel without quarantine; and provide further relief measures to sustain the industry through the dark winter ahead. A broader economic recovery is only possible through the connectivity provided by aviation,” said de Juniac.

View the full September Air Passenger Market Analysis (pdf)

Release IATA
Photo Rob Vogelaar