Potentially, space weather could be a major problem for European air traffic management, given that it is capable of disrupting aviation’s communications, navigation and surveillance systems.

Space weather – solar activity and solar wind in the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere – has caused problems before:

• Satellites have been lost – in 1989 and 2003 – because of space weather.
• Magnetic storms have affected electrical power grids.
• Solar disruptions can interfere with radio, especially HF (high frequency).
• Power failure and induced current in telecommunications grids could knock out internet access and telephones.
• Solar storms can create unusually high levels of ionising radiation – up to a hundred times higher than usual. This can affect flight crews and passengers, but radiation can also impact on electronics and aircraft avionics.

A dedicated workshop examines space weather and its implications for aviation

Europe is acutely aware of the risks that solar weather poses to aviation and a workshop on this topic was organised by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and Network Manager (NM); the workshop was held in Köln on 20 March 2013. The workshop looked at how to manage safety risks and increase awareness of the possible effects; participants also made a start on elaborating mitigation actions.

Prominent speakers from the European Space Agency, the European Cockpit Association, DLR (the German Aerospace Centre), United Airlines and NATS – as well as the joint organisers – shared their views with representatives of airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), Civil Aviation Authorities (CAAs), airports, military and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Together, they identified priorities, spread knowledge and made a bid to further cooperation and harmonisation in this area.

Access all speakers’ presentations on the EASA website

What we know from solar activity in the past

Going by past experience, we can tell that solar eruptions are most likely to occur during periods of high solar activity or, oddly enough, when solar activity decreases.

Although major space events are rare, they do happen.

For instance, around 8 March 2012, solar radiation was forecast to reach the level S3 on the NOAA scale. As a result, a number of airlines that normally operate flights via polar routes rerouted them, so as to avoid exposing crews and passengers to the possible risk of an increased radiation.

On that occasion, for the first time, the NM published a message on space weather on its NOP portal, informing users about the increased solar activity and promising to provide reliable information on the situation.

The major solar event of 2012 happened on 23 July. A massive cloud of solar material erupted off the sun, zooming out into space, passing one of NASA’s Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft along the way. The cloud of solar material ejected from the sun was one of the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) ever measured. Luckily, it travelled in a direction safely away from Earth. According to the experts, had it travelled towards the Earth, it could have been very serious indeed.

The workshop’s main outcomes

The multidisciplinary experts present at the Köln space weather workshop discussed and agreed on a list of key points and recommendations that will be passed on to the European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell – EACCC.

There was general consensus that the aviation community’s awareness of the
potential implications of space weather still needs to be enhanced. As a way forward, it was suggested that space weather training should be made available for pilots and air traffic controllers.

Space weather experts also pointed out that space weather forecasting is in its infancy – weather forecasting a few decades ago was not as reliable as it is today and it would be helpful to improve space weather forecasting, too. All the same, even imperfect space weather information is relevant in some areas and should be drawn on where it brings benefit.

Airlines and operators called for better international coordination and standardisation. Lack of standardisation means that space weather information cannot be used to best effect. ICAO’s ongoing work to standardise space weather information in the same way as weather information will, hopefully, improve this situation over the next few years.

What EASA and EUROCONTROL are doing

In 2012, EASA issued two Safety Information Bulletins: “Effects of Space Weather on Aviation” and “Single Event Effects (SEE) on Aircraft Systems caused by Cosmic Rays”.

EUROCONTROL’s SESAR and Research Directorate is involved in space weather. They are putting particular focus on examining GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) vulnerability. The Network Management Directorate is responsible for activating the European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell and they have identified space weather as a possible hazard for aviation.

The Federal Aviation Agency – FAA – and EUROCONTROL have a Memorandum of Cooperation: space weather features in this as an area of mutual interest and coordination. The working arrangements include following up on ICAO space weather activities. In the next few years, ICAO is expected to create a framework for aviation stakeholders so that they will have access to reliable space weather information for aviation.

EUROCONTROL release