2011 is forecast to see a 3.2% (±0.8%) growth in flights across Europe, a downwards revision on the last publication.
Flights to and from Egypt, Libya and Tunisia were severely disrupted by the unrest in the first part of the year. Based on a gradual recovery scenario from the current situation in these three States, the North African disruptions are expected to cut around 1% off European air traffic in 2011.
2012 will be similar (3.1% growth, ±0.9%). Part of this growth is due to the leap year effect as well as major sporting events. Traffic forecast in 2012 has slightly been revised downwards compared to the last publication. The 2012 forecast also includes the introduction of the Emission trading Scheme (ETS).
The underlying trends in these data are masked by the 2010 April ash-cloud episode; as a result, there is a risk that we have over-compensated for the event. If so, the next forecast might be revised upwards. Notwithstanding this risk, there remain downside risks to the forecast: oil, aviation taxes, economic fragility in some parts of Europe, and other political upheavals.
Eurocontrol press release
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